POL51
University of California, Davis
September 30, 2024
What’s this class about?
Getting to know each other
Voting patterns in the United Nations
Name | Year | Decapitated? | Collapsed? |
---|---|---|---|
April 19 Movement (M-19) | 1987 | 0 | 0 |
April 19 Movement (M-19) | 1988 | 0 | 0 |
Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) | 1996 | 0 | 0 |
Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) | 1997 | 1 | 0 |
al-Qaeda | 1988 | 0 | 0 |
al-Qaeda | 1989 | 0 | 0 |
Decapitated terrorist groups are 3 times more likely to collapse
Groups that are decapitated are different from groups that aren’t decapitated
Groups that were decapitated |
---|
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) |
Dev Sol/DHKP-C |
People Against Gangsterism and Drugs (PAGAD) |
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) |
Groups that weren't decapitated |
---|
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan |
Lautaro Youth Movement (MJL) |
Ansar al-Sunnah Army |
Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) |
The groups that are decapitated might be the weakest ones, the ones that states especially want to destroy, ones where leaders are more important, etc.
We need to adjust for these differences, otherwise our estimates will be confounded
Wrangling and visualizing data to explore the questions we care about
Using models to describe how one political variable might cause another
Thinking causally about the relationships we observe
Grappling with uncertainty in the relationships we observe
Little to none of this:
\[\sigma^2 = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}(x_i - \mu)^2} {n}\]
This class could be a couple lines on a resume:
Ability to work with data ➡️ marketable
R is popular in industry
Familiarity with R ➡️ other languages
Principles learned in R can be applied elsewhere (Excel)
Problem-solving in Slack
I warned you!
Anyone can do it, yes “even” you
you will be surprised at what you can do by the end
But you have to try your best
If this doesn’t work for you, take another class
It’s easy when you start out programming to get really frustrated and think, “Oh it’s me, I’m really stupid,” or, “I’m not made out to program.” But, that is absolutely not the case. Everyone gets frustrated. I still get frustrated occasionally when writing R code. It’s just a natural part of programming. So, it happens to everyone and gets less and less over time. Don’t blame yourself. Just take a break, do something fun, and then come back and try again later.
Hadley Wickham, Chief Data Scientist at RStudio
Do the weekly check-ins; they are free points
Go to section, ask for help on Slack
Do not miss homeworks in this class
Missing one = leaving a big chunk of your final exam blank
I want students who are working hard to do well, but I can’t save you
Went to UF (go gata)…
PhD at Duke University in Durham, NC…
I specialize in political violence, development, and Latin America
Due: 10/4 (any day now)
Birthday on 10/6
👨🎓 Haley Darstaad
👩🎓 RyuGyung (Rio) Park
👨🎓 Jack Rametta
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
Santa Clarita, CA |
San francisco / Malaysia |
Pittsburg, CA |
Roseville, California |
LA, CA |
San Jose, California |
Watsonville, California |
Davis, CA |
Fairfield, California |
San Ramon, CA |
Fontana, California |
San Jose, CA |
Concord, CA |
Irvine California |
Porterville, CA |
San Diego, CA |
San Ramon, CA |
Santa Rosa, California |
Dallas, Texas |
Cloverdale, CA |
Antioch, California |
San Lorenzo, CA |
Woodland, California |
Bakersfield, California |
Sunnyvale, California |
Fairfield, CA |
Seoul, South Korea |
San Jose, CA |
Fremont, California |
Something cool about you? |
---|
One of my favorite hobbies is skiing, and I am on the Davis ski team |
I love gambling |
I have 6 pairs of crocs and a large squishmallow collection |
I really enjoy playing guitar and the violin. |
I can play most songs after listening to them |
Never satisfied at the current conditions |
I am a volleyball referee, and a player, and a coach :) |
I play on the lacrosse team here at UCD! I have been playing lacrosse since I was 7 years old. |
I love nature and doing activities in nature such as camping, hiking, and rafting. |
I make world maps in my free time. |
I work two jobs while in school |
im a black belt in karate |
I'm a soccer fan and I don't like Messi. |
I used to have pink hair :) |
I'm a dj and events director for kdvs |
I can't really think of anything cool, I have lived a fun life and had lots of amazing experiences but I can't think of specific details I would say make me cool |
I make my own jewelry. |
I love baking and sewing |
I have six pet birds. |
I enjoy dirt biking as a hobby. |
I can drive stick shift! |
I went to Romania this summer. |
I have a small Snoopy collection |
My biggest hobby is playing and watching soccer. |
I know how to speak Chinese(Is that something cool?) |
I used to do boxing and kickboxing |
I have a cat named Lucky |
I used to live in Dubai for two years |
I do jiu-jitsu. However, I've yet to find a gym in Davis. |
im left handed |
Why is true crime so popular? |
---|
A lot of Americans live in a pretty high standard of safety and heinous crimes are rarely experienced in their lives. However, news media does a particularly good job of sensationalizing violence and the horrific crimes of serial killers, murderers, etc., placing people in a high state of fear. This fear, however, turns into fascination and deep curiosity, and I think the gore and violence of true crime becomes something that provides stimulation to people. |
Because ordinary people can't do these things in the real world, they're against the law |
Perhaps people like stuff that’s weird, taboo, extreme, bc it goes against what’s societally accepted or expected. Maybe it’s so detached from their everyday lives and routines that it excites/ interests them. Death and murder have also been a natural part of humanity. Probably a multitude of factors as to why people are into it.. |
I love this question. I think there are multiple reasons for the "true crime" genre's popularity. Some people want to know the details of a famous/unsolved murder to potentially be prepared if they encounter a situation like that in the future. Some people are detached from reality and view true crime as a collection of fictional stories, which is gross. True crime can also be sensationalized and exploitative towards the victims if not discussed with proper care, and I think some people get way too caught up in the sensationalization of real people's murders. Of course, there's also simple "morbid curiosity," where you're horrified by the details but just can't stop watching/listening. |
We want to solve mysteries and puzzles, so true crime catches our attention. |
I think because people are one event away from turning to crimes . Or people genuinely think those crimes are cool.. But also I think the way media portrays them are screwed and doesn't really neccessarily show the devastating affects that it had on people in real life. They just make them suspenceful and entertaining. |
I think people are interested in what could drive someone to commit a murder. It is (in my opinion) the most extreme act a human can commit, so I think people are highly fascinated with the details of these stories and how it could conclude with murder. |
People are usually interested in areas they don't understand. |
It is because people like the exhilarating emotions that these shows and podcasts put into the stories, and people are fascinated by these stories because they either want to know why, or because they have an unhealthy obsession with soft gore. |
I think its just because of morbid curiosity to see some of the darkest things that people are capable of. I also think people just like to be scared |
Maybe because it is outside of most people's comfort zones so it is like a breath if fresh air for them |
I think there's a very deep rooted interest in dark and twisted content in today's society easily accessed on the internet. I believe true crime also has an appeal due to the fact that the stories being broadcasted could happen to anyone and therefore strikes its audiences in a very intriguing way. |
It often brings out whatever dark thoughts a person may have but do not/or can not act on. |
I think because it allows people to seemingly experience the most ruthless and often senseless kinds of crime in a way that allows them to not be harmed, and from the safety of their own home. I think it has a lot to do with curiosity about the taboo, and many of the most famous true crime stories focus on crimes that are unusual and quite fascinating to learn about. |
poeple like the shock i guess |
Because humans are invested in thrills and fear |
I believe people are fascinated by these stories because of the interest in learning why these serial killers did what they did. For example, what was going through the murderers head that they deliberately felt satisfaction in ending a persons life. Another interest people might have about it is the serial killers upbringing which is talked about a lot in podcasts and shows, so I feel people are also interested in the events that lead serial killers to commit the crimes they did. |
I love to watch videos about murders, too. I think it's because this famous or unsolved murders let people give their imagination to them, especially for unsolved ones. I have seen people made up many answers to one unsolved murder. (but I don't like unsolved murders; a murder that I cannot know the truth can't fulfill my curiosity.) The reason of their popularity may be similar to the reason of the popularity of detective movies or novels. |
I think because no one truly understands the perspective and reasoning why murderers murder or cannibals commit cannibalism for example. These shows allow the average viewer/ordinary person to see the other side of the story and I think this fascinates people since it’s a glimpse into the mind of a criminal and just how smart they can be. |
I believe that knowing and learning about true crime stories is a way to stay informed and also delve into the minds of murderers which is what makes it so fascinating: the psychological differences between the mind of a criminal and the average person. From a sociological standpoint, it's also interesting to see how the public, media, and the authorities react and take action on these issues. |
At the United Nations, someone proposes a resolution
The countries vote on it
Let’s look at some voting patterns